EU’s 2050 net zero goals at risk as EV rollout faces setbacks

The EU needs to rethink its policies to make a 2035 ban on new petrol car sales feasible as electric vehicles (EVs) remain unaffordable and alternative fuel options are not credible, the EU's external auditor said, jeopardising its 2050 climate goals.

The 27-member bloc wants to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, meaning it will emit no more than it can balance out with measures to remove carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere, such as reforestation programmes.

It hopes to meet its targets with the widespread use of electric vehicles as road transport accounts for nearly a quarter of its emissions.

The EU wants to have at least 30-million zero-emission cars on European roads by 2030, or about 12% of the current car fleet. However, the European Court of Auditors (ECA) cautioned the bloc may create new economic dependencies and hurt its own industry.

High EV production costs in Europe means the bloc will have to rely on cheap imports, mainly from China, if it sticks to the 2035 goal. China accounts for 76% of EV battery output compared with the EU that represents less than 10% of production globally.

"The EU faces a conundrum, how to meet goals without harming industrial policy and hurting consumers," Annemie Turtelboom, an ECA member, told reporters.

She said 2026 will be a key year for a policy review.

Tesla is the leading EV maker in the US and Europe but has come under pressure to slash prices due to competition from Chinese cars. Similarly, European carmakers such as  Stellantis that owns Peugeot and Fiat, and Renault are racing to develop their own affordable EV models.

While EV purchases have been on the rise in the EU, the increase was largely due to subsidies. Charging infrastructure is lacking with 70% of charging points concentrated in Germany, France and the Netherlands. The EU is falling short of its aim to set up one million charging stations across the bloc.

"[EV] prices would need to halve and subsidies do not seem to be a viable tool.. Batteries alone cost €15,000 (R307,000) when produced in Europe," Turtleboom said when speaking to reporters.

Alternative fuels such as biofuels, e-fuels or hydrogen remain uneconomic at commercial scale.

Adding to the difficulties in hitting its 2050 goal, the ECA said the EU has not cut real CO₂ emissions from cars despite new testing standards and measures such as Euro 6.

In a January report, the ECA attributed this to the gap between laboratory tests and real world emission tests. The commission was relying on lab tests, which created a skewed version. In reality, average emissions from diesel cars are the unchanged from 2010 at 170g of CO₂ per kilometre while petrol cars are down 4.6% at more than 160g CO₂/km.

"Despite lofty ambitions and strict requirements, most conventional cars continue  emit as much CO₂ as 12 years ago." Nikolaos Milionis, ECA member, said, attributing part of the failure to a rise in the average weight of cars.